GI Lower
NOM for rectal cancer is expanding; ctDNA integration into surveillance protocols remains an active question.
ctDNA surveillance in non-operative rectal cancer management
ForStage I-III MSS rectal, cCR/nCR after NAT, undergoing NOM
TL;DRctDNA sensitivity only 41% for local regrowth vs 74% for distant mets in 110 NOM rectal pts; risk stratifies but cannot replace imaging.
| Outcome | Sensitivity | Specificity | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Local regrowth | 12/29 (41%) | 480/509 (94%) | 492/538 (91%) |
| Distant metastasis | 31/42 (74%) | 611/627 (97%) | 642/669 (96%) |
7 details
- π N=110, INTERCEPT program, MD Anderson 2020-2024; stage I-III MSS rectal adenocarcinoma, cCR/nCR after NAT β NOM; Signateraβ’ tumor-informed ctDNA
- π 22/23 pts with local regrowth underwent salvage surgery; ctDNA-positive at regrowth: ypT3-4 75% vs 21% (ctDNA-negative), p=0.01
- π Ever-positive longitudinal ctDNA: worse 2-yr local regrowth-free survival (log-rank p=0.0002) and metastasis-free survival (p<0.0001)
- π First post-NAT ctDNA positive (within 180 days): worse regrowth-free (p=0.0006) and metastasis-free survival (p<0.0001)
- π Positive ctDNA associated with regrowth (~60%) and distant mets (~60%) in ctDNA-positive pts
- β οΈ Sensitivity only 41% for local regrowth β negative ctDNA does not exclude local recurrence; endoscopy and MRI remain essential
- β οΈ Single-institution non-randomised cohort, N=110, median f/u 25 months; no ctDNA-guided vs standard surveillance arm
- Does ctDNA-guided intensified surveillance improve salvage surgery success rates?
- Optimal ctDNA testing frequency and timing within NOM protocols
- Performance in dMMR/MSI-H pts (all MSS here)
π Sources Β· π¦ 1 tweet
Important study re: ctDNA for non-op surveillance in rectal ca.
— Dr. Nina Niu Sanford (@NiuSanford) June 1, 2026
Pos ctDNA associated w regrowth (60%) & distant mets (60%), but neg ctDNA doesn't exclude local regrowth (sensitivity only 41%)
ctDNA good for risk stratification but not surveillance replacement #ASCO26 @OncoAlert pic.twitter.com/UQQub5QfNB