GI Lower
Watch-and-wait surveillance after chemoRT: ctDNA misses most local regrowths, so endoscopy and MRI keep carrying the salvage window.
ctDNA and Local Regrowth/Distant Mets in Nonoperative Rectal Cancer
ForMSS stage I-III rectal ca, cCR/nCR after NAT, on nonoperative management
TL;DRctDNA sensitivity for local regrowth only 41% (12/29), specificity 94%; distant mets sensitivity 74%, specificity 97%.
The number that gates watch-and-wait practice is 41% sensitivity for local regrowth (12/29 samples): a negative ctDNA cannot license lengthening MRI or endoscopy intervals in an organ-preservation protocol. Specificity 94% means a positive result is worth acting on, and ctDNA+ at regrowth tracked ypT3-4 in 6/8 vs 3/14 (p=0.01).
In a stage I-III MSS rectal pt in watch-and-wait after TNT or CRT, a positive ctDNA supports intensified assessment for regrowth or distant disease; a negative result does not support relaxing endoscopic or MRI surveillance intervals.
Watch-and-wait after TNT or chemoRT is an RT-owned pathway, and this says the surveillance burden that sustains it cannot be shifted to blood. Sensitivity for local regrowth was 41% (12/29); a negative ctDNA does not support lengthening MRI or proctoscopy intervals in a pt whose rectum you preserved.
The distant-metastasis read is where ctDNA earns its place: sensitivity 74%, specificity 97% (31/42 and 611/627), versus 41% locally. That supports using serial ctDNA to trigger systemic restaging and escalation decisions, not to arbitrate local status.
ctDNA positivity at the time of regrowth tracked more advanced salvage pathology: ypT3-4 in 6/8 (75%) vs 3/14 (21%), p=0.01. A regrowth found in a ctDNA-positive pt is more likely to be a deeper-invading tumor, which informs how the salvage TME is planned rather than whether it is offered.
| Outcome | Sensitivity | Specificity | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| For local regrowth | 12 / 29 (41%) | 480 / 509 (94%) | 492 / 538 (91%) |
| For distant metastasis | 31 / 42 (74%) | 611 / 627 (97%) | 642 / 669 (96%) |
11 details
Single-institution cohort from MD Anderson's INTERCEPT program, 2020-2024, N=110, with serial tumor-informed ctDNA during nonoperative management. Median follow-up 25 months (IQR 18-37).
Microsatellite stable stage I-III rectal adenocarcinoma achieving cCR or near-cCR after neoadjuvant therapy and managed nonoperatively. Median age 56; baseline cT3 in 72 and cT4 in 16; 69 received TNT, 41 CRT or chemotherapy alone.
Local regrowth and distant metastasis by longitudinal ctDNA status, by first post-NAT ctDNA (within 180 days), and per-sample accuracy for an event within ±90 days of each draw. Salvage-surgery pathology by ctDNA status at regrowth.
Twenty-three pts (21%) had local regrowth and 12 (11%) distant metastasis. Ever-positive ctDNA separated both curves (log rank p=0.0002 for regrowth, p<.0001 for metastasis). The per-sample table carries the operating characteristics.
Per-sample analysis pools 669 draws from 110 pts without accounting for repeated measures, so the confidence around 41% is softer than the denominator suggests. The first-post-NAT comparison rests on n=12 evaluable pts as reported in the source. No comparison against MRI or endoscopy, the tests ctDNA would have to beat.
The asymmetry between local (41%) and distant (74%) sensitivity is the informative result: intraluminal regrowth from a small residual burden sheds too little DNA to be caught reliably, while metastatic disease does. That biology argues for ctDNA as a distant-recurrence tool layered onto, not substituted for, luminal surveillance.
Retrospective single-center cohort; per-sample analysis treats 669 draws from 110 pts as independent. No head-to-head against MRI/endoscopy surveillance.
- Does ctDNA add anything over MRI plus endoscopy in NOM surveillance?
- Can draw timing or a lower assay threshold raise local regrowth sensitivity?
- Does ctDNA-triggered restaging improve salvage outcomes?
📚 Sources · 🐦 1 tweet
Important study re: ctDNA for non-op surveillance in rectal ca.
— Dr. Nina Niu Sanford (@NiuSanford) June 1, 2026
Pos ctDNA associated w regrowth (60%) & distant mets (60%), but neg ctDNA doesn't exclude local regrowth (sensitivity only 41%)
ctDNA good for risk stratification but not surveillance replacement #ASCO26 @OncoAlert pic.twitter.com/UQQub5QfNB