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ctDNA surveillance in organ-preservation rectal cancer: strong for distant mets, weak for the local regrowth watch-and-wait actually hinges on.
ctDNA and Local Regrowth/Distant Mets in Nonoperative Management of Stage II-III Rectal Cancer
ForMSS stage II-III rectal adenoca in cCR/nCR on watch-and-wait after TNT
TL;DRctDNA sensitivity 41% for local regrowth vs 74% for distant mets; positive result predicts both but can't replace endoscopy/MRI surveillance in rectal NOM.
The asymmetry is the actionable read: ctDNA caught only 41% of local regrowths vs 74% of distant mets, so for post-TNT organ-preservation surveillance it flags distant-met risk but can't replace endoscopy/MRI. ctDNA+ at regrowth also tracked more advanced ypT3-4 salvage pathology (75% vs 21%).
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Prospective single-center cohort (MD Anderson INTERCEPT program), N=110, 2020-2024. Serial tumor-informed ctDNA (Signatera Exome), 669 samples; median follow-up 25 mo (IQR 18-37).
MSS stage II-III rectal adenocarcinoma in cCR (69) or nCR (41) after NAT, managed non-operatively. Median age 56; cT3 in 72 and cN1-2 in 60 of 110; NAT almost entirely TNT (104/110).
Regrowth-free and distant-metastasis-free survival by longitudinal and first-post-NAT ctDNA; per-sample diagnostic accuracy (±90d of each draw); salvage-surgery pathology by ctDNA status. No registered primary endpoint (observational).
Local regrowth in 23 (21%), distant mets in 12 (11%). Ever-positive ctDNA tracked worse regrowth-free and distant-met-free survival (log-rank p=0.0002 and p<0.0001). Per-sample sensitivity 41% local regrowth vs 74% distant mets.
| Endpoint | Sensitivity | Specificity | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Local regrowth | 41% (12/29) | 94% (480/509) | 91% (492/538) |
| Distant metastasis | 74% (31/42) | 97% (611/627) | 96% (642/669) |
Consistent with the emerging ctDNA-as-prognostic signal in rectal NOM, but quantifies a sensitivity ceiling (41%) that limits its use for local-regrowth surveillance.
Single-center, N=110 with only 29 regrowth- and 42 distant-met-associated samples driving diagnostic estimates. Assay-specific (Signatera tumor-informed); no comparison vs imaging-alone surveillance.
Single-center prospective cohort (N=110), no interventional comparator; prognostic association consistent with emerging ctDNA-in-NOM data and reaffirms imaging/endoscopy surveillance can't be replaced.
Applies to the MSS stage II-III rectal pt in cCR/nCR pursuing watch-and-wait after TNT, in whom a negative ctDNA still can't exclude local regrowth; it does not extend to MSI-H tumors or pts not pursuing organ preservation.
- Does ctDNA-guided surveillance improve organ-preservation outcomes vs imaging alone n=100 · primary completion 2025-12 · candidate match
- Can serial ctDNA kinetics raise local regrowth sensitivity above 41%
- Generalizability beyond single-center tumor-informed Signatera cohort
📚 Sources · 🐦 1 tweet
Important study re: ctDNA for non-op surveillance in rectal ca.
— Dr. Nina Niu Sanford (@NiuSanford) June 1, 2026
Pos ctDNA associated w regrowth (60%) & distant mets (60%), but neg ctDNA doesn't exclude local regrowth (sensitivity only 41%)
ctDNA good for risk stratification but not surveillance replacement #ASCO26 @OncoAlert pic.twitter.com/UQQub5QfNB